After the so-called ‘Islamic State’ saw its influence in the Middle East wane, the group and its affiliates have targeted poorly governed areas in Africa. But just how big is its threat across Africa?

Last week, Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum said Niger needed technological assistance from its European partners to fight jihadism in his country. He complained of swathes of territory in Mali and Niger being taken over by the so-called ‘Islamic State’ — known also as ISIS — and its affiliates. It came as French President Emmanuel Macron announced France would start closing military bases in northern Mali by the end of 2021, including the 5,100-member Barkhane force.

“We are going to reorganize ourselves in line with this need to stop this spread to the south,” Macron told reporters.

“Unfortunately, ISIS is so widespread in Africa today that you can say it is across the continent. You are talking about groups of countries and subregions,” Nigerian political analyst Bulama Bukarti told DW.

Jihadis have taken control of significant territories in the Sahel and the Lake Chad regions, which include parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Nigeria. In 2018, the West African Centre for Counter Extremism (WACCE) reported up to 6,000 West Africans, who had fought with the ‘Islamic State’, returned home from Iraq and Syria after the group’s self-proclaimed caliphate collapsed.

“It was only a matter of time before we would begin to see ISIS activities replicated in their home countries,” says Mutaru Mumuni Muqthar, director of the WACCE in Ghana.

He says West African countries with weak national institutions and high unemployment rates for young people have eroded countries’ resistance to the Islamic State.

“We have pervasive, ‘ungoverned’ spaces that allow affiliate groups to operate on the blind side of security forces. Countries currently going through different conflicts make them vulnerable,” Muqthar told DW.

While coastal west African states so far have largely avoided attacks, that could soon change, Muqthar warns. The threat increases the longer ISIS affiliated groups “fester” and can mobilize resources and capacities in areas currently under their control.

“That is the end game for Islamic State, and that is why believe the entire region is at risk of having a whole new caliphate established.”

Bukarti points out that the IS strategy of “recruiting locally entrenched troops who know the area very well” has contributed to the groups’ successes against national and regional security forces.

IS threat in the DRC?

Reports of bloody attacks by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have sparked fears that the group has an affiliation to the Islamic state. Recently, 50 villagers were killed in two attacks blamed on the ADF, the Kivu Security Tracker research group said. This March, the United States officially linked the ADF and IS.

But Christoph Vogel of the Belgium-based Ghent University Conflict Research Group says there is not a lot of evidence to prove the groups are linked. While he acknowledges the ‘Islamic State’ has an interest in gaining a foothold in areas lacking social cohesion and socio-economic wellbeing, such as to the eastern Congo, he points out.

“The populations in the Congo are not very open to religious extremism in general. Conflicts are more about identity politics, land, political problems, but it’s rare that religious mobilization works,” he told DW.

Vogel describes the armed groups operating in the eastern Congo as “pragmatic and flexible”, especially in terms of partnerships. The ADF, he says, has entertained alliances with local groups.

“In the past few years, we’ve observed international ISIS propaganda media channels actually spreading information about the ADF’s battlefield operations and attacks and then claiming these under the label of the Islamic State. We don’t know if this is just a loose connection aimed at propaganda or if there are deeper links in terms of recruitment, supply or training,” he tells DW.

He adds the ADF’s methods and attacks have not changed significantly over the years.

Mozambique the new frontier for ISIS?

While Western-backed efforts to stem the spread of Islamic State operations in the Sahel and central Africa have lost steam, the European Union, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and regional neighbors are gearing up to defend the resource rich region of Cabo Delgado in northern Mozambique from jihadis. More than 800,000 people have been displaced and some 1.3 million people are in severe humanitarian need, the EU said.

The EU’s military mission is to train Mozambican forces. Rwanda has sent 1,000 police and army personnel. Regional body SADC has also sent troops. While securing northern Mozambique is the prime objective, each mission has its own aims and parameters, according the security analyst Ryan Cummings from Signal Risk in South Africa. He says Mozambique’s decision to allow foreign troops to stabilize Cabo Delgado “may have come from external pressure, from stakeholders in the liquified natural gas sector”.

“In the medium term, it would be unrealistic to see significant gains or change in the trajectory in the insurgency,” Cummings tells DW.

He says there is evidence to suggest the insurgents have a “foothold” in southern Tanzania, and could “melt away” to ride out the deployment of foreign troops.

“We saw something very similar happen in Nigeria, where a multinational force deployed against Boko Haram in 2015,” he says, adding that Boko Haram simply held out across the border in neighboring countries.